President Trump and Ukraine


House Democrats have begun an impeachment inquiry regarding President Trump’s conversations with Ukraine’s president, involving former Vice President Joe Biden’s son. While the House of Representatives may vote for impeachment, the Republican controlled Senate is almost certain to acquit him. This is similar to what happened during the Clinton administration. Back in February 1999, Clinton was impeached by the House, but acquitted by the Senate. Stocks rallied following these actions and market analysts expect a similar reaction concerning President Trump.


EUR continues to be under pressure as economic releases point towards the Eurozone economy heading towards recession. ECB President Draghi is scheduled to speak later today and defend his recent decision to restart the bond-buying program, which will begin on Nov. 1. Traders are not expecting any “EUR positive” comments.


The British Pound is also under pressure as the UK Parliament went back to work yesterday. Brexit concerns continue to weigh on Sterling. PM Johnson said yesterday that the opposition parties should call a vote of no-confidence in his government or stand aside and vote for whatever Brexit deal Johnson proposes. The October 31 Brexit deadline is now a little more than a month away. 


The US and Japan signed the first phase of their trade deal. This agreement covers US agricultural products and Japanese machine tools. Auto tariffs were not mentioned in this agreement and US representatives indicated that this would be discussed in a later round of negotiations that are scheduled for next April. Traders who sought safe haven security early in the trading session seemed to ease back on trades later in the day after digesting the impeachment and trade war news. Bank of Japan released their last meetings’ minutes and there were no surprises as the BOJ discussed adding to its stimulus program.


Oil prices fell for a second consecutive trading session amid concerns of global economic growth and receding fears of escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. As commodity prices ease, commodity-linked currencies ease as well. The United States did announce new Iran-related sanctions regarding companies that have transported oil from Iran.


President Trump stated an end to the trade war with China could happen sooner rather than later. The President indicated yesterday that the US and China are “having some very good conversations on trade”. He added that China is “starting to buy our agricultural products again”.

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