Non-farm payroll is the highlight today with the consensus for October being 75,000 jobs created according to Dow Jones. This is much lower than the 136,000 jobs created in September. According to analysts, the strike at GM by the United Auto Workers (UAW) negatively affected the employment industry. Surveys on the unemployment rate have it moving up to 3.6% from the 3.5% in September.
EUR is better bid this morning as traders are expecting disappointing USD NFP numbers and a slight increase in US unemployment. The EUR currency futures markets rose for the fifth consecutive trading session. An overly disappointing number could see an upward move in the single currency.
UK PMI for October came in at 49.6, well above the expected number of 48.1 and much better than 48.3 from last month. This has helped the GBP in overnight trading. Also supporting the pound was release of an opinion poll indicating a majority for British PM Johnson in the upcoming December election.
Japan released their latest PMI Manufacturing data overnight and the October number was 48.4, which was down from the September number of 48.9. The number was the lowest in almost 3 and a 1/2 years. Production also fell for the tenth consecutive month.
Canada’s real GDP rose by 0.14% in August, below the market expectation of 0.2%. This was a slight improvement from the July release, which showed no growth in the economy. 14 out of the 20 categories saw gains over the past month. Given the overall global economy, this number was encouraging for the Loonie.
China PMI rose to 51.7 in October, beating expectations of 51.0 and up from last month’s 51.0. New orders expanded at their quickest rate since January and growth accelerated. This was the fastest growth since the beginning of the US-China trade war.
US Non-Farm payroll
US Non-Farm payroll added a surprising 128,000 jobs in October, way above the expected number of 75,000 jobs. The unemployment rate also rose to 3.6%, higher than the expected rise to 3.4%.
Average hourly earnings rose $0.06 and there were upward revisions to the last two job releases. August was revised upwards by 51,000 from 168,000 to 216,000 and September was revised upwards by 44,000 from 136,000 to 180,000. That takes the three-month moving average on jobs to 176,000. This was quite a strong number that appears to have shaken off the GM strike that many felt would depress this release.
The markets appear to be appreciative of the job report as the USD has gained slightly against the EUR following the release, while DOW Futures moved from up 23 points prior to the release and 93 after.
Investors will keep a close eye on the Manufacturing PMI number released later this morning, curious as to whether the positive news continues for the rest of the day.